Thursday, October 1, 2015

GLOBAL WARMING AND MAGNOLIA

After  flunking  a  course  for  the  first  time  in  my  life  in  my  first  year  of  law  school,    I  took  a  year's  sabbatical,   worked  about  60  hours  a  week  while  I  learned  the  Russian  language,   paid  off  all  of  my  bills,  saved  enough  money  to  live  on  and  finish  paying-off  my  law  school  tuition,    and  returned  to   law  school  and  ended-up  graduating  with  the  second  highest  bar  exam  score  in  my  class.

During  this  time  --  that  is,  beginning  in  the  Fall  of  1976  --  environmental  law  piqued  my  interest.    After  working  part-time  as  a  paralegal  at  the  Public  Interest  Law  Center  of  Philadelphia,    I  moved  over  to  the  Environmental  Protection  Agency,  where  I  worked  as  a  paralegal   with  his  own  unit,  charged  with  devising  a  legal  and  economical  means  to  dispose  of  millions  of  cubic  yards  of  sewage  sludge,   suffused  with  poisonous  heavy  metals,  stored  in  enormous  lagoons  next  to  the  oil  refinery   at  the  convergence  of  the  Schuylkill  and  Delaware  Rivers  in  Philadelphia.

As  I  worked  on  the  poisonous  sludge  disposal  project  --  ultimately,  an  amazing  adventure  and  study  in  youthful  naivete  --  I  was  introduced  for  the  first  time  to  the  topic  of  global  warming  by  engineers  in  the  Environmental  Protection  Agency,  when  papers  on  that  subject,  being  circulated  through  the  EPA,  caught  their  attention.

They  explained  to  me  that  there  was  a  growing  fear  that  human  activity  was  causing  a  net  absolute  increase  in  the  global  inventory  of  the  atmospheric  gases
CARBON  DIOXIDE  (CO2)
METHANE  (CH4)
NITROUS  OXIDE  (N2O)
each  of  which  had  enormous  power  to  increase  the  average  world  temperature.

They  showed  me  graphs  of  data  from  Mount  Washington  in  New  Hampshire  and  Mauna Loa  in  Hawaii,  showing  a  persistent  annual  increase  in  atmospheric  CO2.   

They  talked  about  the  probable  need,  in  the  near  future,  to  treat  greenhouse  gases  as  pollutants,    so  that  government  and  international  treaties  could  try  to  control  them  to  keep  the  ice  caps  and  other  land-bound  ice  from  melting.

I  was  sold.  I  realized  that  I  was  looking  at  the  world's  biggest  worry.

I  was  sorely  disappointed  when  I  was  unable  to  break-into  environmental  law  on  behalf  of  the  government,  either  at  the  federal  level  or  at  the  state  level,  for  various  reasons.

But,  I  never  stopped  watching  the  development  of  global  warming  concerns  in  the  media.

Since  the  mid-1970s,   scientific  knowledge  about  the  true  nature  of  global  warming  and  the  dangers  it  entails  has  increased  by  leaps  and  bounds.

At  a  particular  point,  it  dawned  on  environmental  scientists  that  their  analyses  were  all  absurdly  tame,  because  "straight-line  thinking"  suffused  their  math.

To  give  a  simple -- but  extremely  important --  example,  it  is  NOT  true  that  for  every  1  degree  of  world  atmospheric  temperature  increase  above  32  degrees  Fahrenheit,  X  amount  of  ice  melts.

Instead,  it  ALL  melts  above  32  degrees  Fahrenheit.

Scientific  estimates  of  how  long  it  would  take  for  polar  ice  on  Greenland  and  Antarctica   to  melt  were  instantly divided  by a factor  of 10 !

And  then  they  had  to  be  re-divided  by  10,  again !

And  now  science  is  flirting  with  another  decrease  of  how  much  time  we  have  to  a  disastrous  melting,   by  a  factor  of  10,  for  a  third  time !

This  change  in  thinking  --  and  the  alarming  conclusions  it  leads  to,  namely  that  we  only  have  a  few  years  to  solve  global  warming  problems  --   is  referred  to  as  the  arrival  of  "tipping-point  logic."

Next,  scientists  measuring  the  increase  in  global  warming  gases  were  puzzled  by  a  new,  strictly  modern   change  in  the  data  --  the  relatively  low  levels  of  methane  in  the  atmosphere,  with  its   enormously  greater   global  warming  power  --  20  times  that  of  CO2  --  suddenly  began  to  "go  asymptotic"  on  the  graphs:  The  amount  of  extraordinarily  dangerous  methane  in  the  atmosphere  suddenly  began  to  shoot-up  alarmingly,  like  a  rocket.



Why?  Where  was  all  of  the  extremely  dangerous  methane  coming  from?

Two  places,  it  turned  out.    As  CO2  heated  the  atmosphere,  the  seas  got  hotter,    decreasing  their  ability  to  hold  dissolved  methane.

And,   as  CO2   heated  the  atmosphere,  the  Asian  and  Alaskan  tundra  began  to  defrost,  releasing  shocking  amounts  of  methane  into  the  atmosphere,  as  ancient,  previously-frozen   animal  and  vegetable  matter  under  the  ground  began  to  rot  again.   Suddenly,  a  new  "sport"  took  root  in  Siberia  and  Alaska  --  setting  invisible  methane  geysers  on  fire ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FM0hczFNDZI

Suddenly,  out  of  the  blue,  mankind's  global  warming  problem  has  been  multiplied  by  a  factor  of  20,  as  the  methane  graph  now  outstrips  the  carbon  dioxide  graph  in  illustrations  depicting  global  warming  gas  increases,  because  methane  is  20  times  as  bad  as   carbon  dioxide,  for  global  warming  purposes.

Next,  scientists,  greatly  puzzled  by  radical  temperature  increases  in  the  seas  near  the  poles,  made  another  astonishing,  deeply-discouraging  discovery  --  the  ocean  currents  work  like  conveyor  belts  transferring   ocean  heat  increases  due  to  global  warming  from  the  hot  Equator  to  the  cold  polar  regions,  concentrating  it  there.

Because  of  the  currents,  every  ONE  degree  in  ocean  temperature  increase  at  the  hot  Equator,  directly  under  the  sun,  generates  a  FOUR  degree  ocean  temperature  increase  at  the  cold,  dark  poles !

Suddenly,    the  risk  of  polar  ice  cap  melting   had  been  multiplied  and  accelarated  AGAIN,  by  a  factor  of  FOUR !

As  science  came  to  terms  with  these  new  realizations,   some  began  to  calculate  the  amount  of  land-bound  ice  in  the  world,  being  melted  by  global   warming.

The  amount  is  astonishing.

When  all  factors  are  calculated  into  the  estimate,  the  total  increase  in  world  sea  levels,  if  ALL  land-bound  ice  were  to  melt,  comes  to   225  feet.

225  feet  ABOVE  current  sea  levels.

Now,  think  about  that.  On  the  average,  Magnolia,  New  Jersey  is  23  meters,  or  a  little  over  75  feet,  above  sea  level.

What  that  means  is,   If  all   of  the  land-bound  ice  above  sea  level  in  the  world  were  to  melt  from  global  warming,    on  the  average  Magnolia  will  be  150  feet  BELOW  the  surface  of  the  seas !

150  feet !

The  best  way  to  understand  that  figure  is  to  be  made  aware  that  the  deepest  I  could  dive,  when  I  was  a  SCUBA  diver  with  tanks,  years  ago,  is  165  feet.



The  water  above  Magnolia,  when  all  of  the  melting  is  done,  will  be  so  deep  that  normal  SCUBA  diving  methods  will  barely  be  adequate  to  reach  your  front  doors!

That  seems  ridiculous,  doesn't  it?

But  it's  NOT  ridiculous.

It's  starting  to  actually  HAPPEN !

No  joke.

Currently,  the  oceans  at  our  latitude  are  become  about  1/32  of  an  inch  deeper  each  year.

You  can  understand  why,  when  you  look  at  YouTube  videos  of  Greenland  ice  melting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-EMCxE1v22I

Very  soon,  it  will  be  1/16   of  an  inch  per  year.

As  July's  grow  hotter  and  hotter  and  hotter,  it  will  become  1/8  of  an  inch  per  year.

Then  1/4  of  an  inch  per  year.

Then  1/2  of  an  inch  per  year.

1  inch  per  year.

2  inches  per  year.

4  inches  per  year.

8  inches  per  year.

And  so  on.

In  other  words,  that  1/32  of  an  inch  per  year  IS  ONLY  FOR  THIS  YEAR.  We  DON'T  have  225  feet  x  12  inches  x  32  years,  or  86,400  years.  We  have  40,  or  maybe  30,  or  even  as  little  as  20  years.

Until  the  sea  water  creeping  up   the  railroad  tracks  toward  Magnolia  from  the  direction  of  Clementon  reaches  Warwick  Road.



This  is  where  things  are  going.

As  scientists  and  some  political  leaders  absorbed  and  quietly  discussed  these  facts,   they  also  looked  at  the  consequences  in  a  more  realistic  fashion,  geographically  and  demographically.

In  most  estuaries  --  the  bays,  rivers  and  creeks   subject  to  tides  --   every  1  inch  increase  in  ocean  depth  yields  an  invasion  of  about  1000  inches  of  land  to  the  left  and  right.  That's  83.3  feet  to  the  left  and  right,  for  a  total  loss  of  166.6  feet  of  inhabitable  estuary  shore.

The  best  way  to  understand  this  figure  is  to  look  at  the  hotels  on  the  beach  at  Miami  in  Florida.

A  few  inches   of  ocean  depth  increase  will  decrease  their  value  from  HUNDREDS  OF  BILLIONS  OF  DOLLARS  to  $00.01  --  one  cent !

Now,  here  is  the  real  problem  with  ocean  depth  increase  --  about  65%   of  humanity  lives  on  land  adjacent  to  estuaries.

That  means  that  very  shortly,   65%  x  7.4  billion  people   in  the  world,   or  4.8  BILLION  people  --  including  every  human  being  in  Magnolia  --  are  going  to  have  to  move  upland.

As  the  chaos  generated  by  such  a  move  accelerates,  it  will  be  more  than  any  political  system  in  the  world  can  handle.  Governments  everywhere  will  collapse.   The  uncanny  ability  of  modern  movies  to  anticipate  things,  like  "Mad  Max:  Fury  Road,"  will  once  again  be  proven,  in  spades.

This  is  the  near  future,  friends.

1 comment:

  1. Soul-less Governor Christie (who can never confront constituents with truth -- instead, he says what he needs to say, and takes WHATEVER position he needs to take, to get elected) says that global warming is real, but it's not enough of a problem to be a serious concern. His false words remind one on Hoover's description of Prohibition as "the noble experiment." In truth, if you look at this year's films of Greenland melting, you will be frightened.

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